A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
